We are upon the fight of the year this upcoming Saturday when Mexican Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (63-2-2, 39KO) defends all the titles at 168 pounds against the undefeated multi-divisional world champion Terence “Bud” Crawford (41-0, 31KO). The mega event will take place at the Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada, and will be broadcast live on Netflix.com. The fight card is presented by TKO Promotions led by the UFC’s Dana White in association with Saudi Arabia’s Turki A-Sheikh’s Sela for Riyadh Season.
In my very personal opinion, Crawford of Omaha, Nebraska is a better fighter than Guadalajara, Mexico’s Alvarez. A switch hitter who changes from orthodox to southpaw seamlessly with quicker hands and feet, the agile Crawford to the naked eye is at a higher level as boxer than Alvarez. Alvarez, known for his above average defense, is a hard-hitting come-forward puncher but with plodding feet and much agility.
Despite of that, Alvarez has a huge advantage in this fight. Having competed in the super middleweight division since late 2018, Alvarez has fought at either 168 pounds or above for 14 fights with a record of 13-1, 5KO. His lone loss during that run was when the 35-year-old Alvarez stepped up to the light heavyweight division to challenge then world champion Dmitrii Bivol in mid-2022. Bivol was awarded a much-deserved unanimous decision.
Crawford, 37, is moving up two full division from his last fight last December. That fight, a hard-fought unanimous decision with over Israil Madrimov, was fought at 154 pounds. Prior to that Crawford campaigned at welterweight for 8 fights with all of then ending before the final bell.
Despite the odds are against Crawford, it is not an insurmountable task. Although it is a traditional thought a bigger good fighter will always beat a smaller great fighter, there have been instances the smaller fighter wins which turns that fighter into a legend:
- Roberto Duran vs “Sugar” Ray Leonard – Perhaps the best-known instance of the smaller fighter beating the bigger one of the last 40 years, Duran went up from lightweight to welterweight in 1980 to defeat Leonard, at the time the “Golden Boy” of boxing, for the WBC world title in what was billed in the “Brawl in Montreal”.
- “Sugar” Ray Leonard vs Donny Lalonde – One of the most interesting arrangements for a world title fight in the history of boxing, this fight was for two WBC world titles. Fought at a limit of 168lbs, the fight was for the 168- and 175-pound titles. Leonard, known best for his career from 147 to 160 pounds, knocked out Lalonde, the light heavyweight champion, in nine rounds in 1988.
- Roberto Duran vs Iran Barkley – Duran, one of the best fighters in boxing history, nine years after beating Leonard did it again, this time for the WBC 160 world champion against the “Blade” Iran Barkley. Duran captured another world title in a fourth division by split decision.
- Roy Jones Jr vs John Ruiz – In 2003, after making his name in the light heavyweight division at its undisputed king, Jones Jr stepped up to the heavyweight and dominated John Ruiz with a unanimous division for the WBA title. Jones Jr didn’t stay in the division, vacating the title at returning to 175 pounds with mixed results.
- Manny Pacquiao vs Antonio Margarito – Although by 2010 Pacquiao had already shown the world how special he truly was, in this fight he went up to his heaviest weight, 154 pounds, and destroyed the “Tijuana Tornado” breaking his opponent’s orbital bone and capturing the vacant WBC 154-pound title.
Although not often, as we can see the feat can be achieved but is Terence Crawford at the same level as the ones who have? Can you mention Crawford in the same breath as Duran, Leonard, Jones Jr and Pacquiao?
I say no.
One of the factors all these fighters have in common except Crawford is by the time they achieved the unthinkable, they all had losses in their record. They had struggled during a fight and perhaps been behind and came back to win the fight. Crawford, except getting hurt against Yuriorkis Gamboa back in 2014, has not lost many rounds throughout his career.
Does he have what it takes to dig deep and push until the end and get the win? Despite Crawford’s speed and agility, he is still going to get hit by Alvarez, will he survive the power? At that point Crawford is either going to wave it off and look to decipher his opponent’s style or go into survival mode like many of Alvarez’s recent opponents.
At the end I see Alvarez winning a unanimous decision on the strength of his weight advantage where Crawford’s punches will not make a difference on Alvarez and the Mexican will be able to come forward and score the more effective punches.
Other Musings
-Mauricio Sulaiman, the president of the WBC, has gone on a very public record to share TKO Promotions’ Dana White has not given him permission to climb into the ring and award the belt to the winner between Alvarez and Crawford. Sulaiman stated he would do everything under his power to make sure the WBC is not disrespected.
-There is a rumor Terence Crawford is nursing a shoulder injury stemming from an earlier surgery. According to the rumor, the flare up has been in an issue in camp. Crawford has debunked the rumor this week in a number of interviews in Las Vegas.
-The promotors of the event are claiming Alvarez vs Crawford is the “Fight of the Century” and promoting it as such. Real boxing fans don’t see it as such as despite being past their prime and the fight not living up to what was expected, the true “Fight of the Century” was the 2015 matchup between Floyd “Money” Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao. Mayweather took a unanimous decision.
